[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 162/116

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            180/133            185/138
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class faring possible. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9899 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 2 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2211 1011
      Townsville           6   3-21 112-
      Learmonth            3   2211 1010
      Canberra             0   0100 1001
      Hobart               2   1201 1000
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-32 2011
      Davis(Ant)           0   ---- --02
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2222 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 May    12    Unsettled 
04 May     7    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
01 May   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20-50% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 May   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 May   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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