[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 2 09:25:29 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 162/116
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class faring possible.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9899 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 2 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 3 2211 1011
Townsville 6 3-21 112-
Learmonth 3 2211 1010
Canberra 0 0100 1001
Hobart 2 1201 1000
Casey(Ant) 7 3-32 2011
Davis(Ant) 0 ---- --02
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAY :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2222 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 May 12 Unsettled
04 May 7 Quiet
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
01 May 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20-50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 May 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 May 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list