[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 181/134

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124
COMMENT: 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 2140UT 
on 29 Mar. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1110 1122
      Townsville           2   0100 112-
      Learmonth            3   2100 112-
      Canberra             1   0000 1113
      Hobart               0   0000 1013
      Casey(Ant)           3   1221 0112
      Davis(Ant)           3   1111 1121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   1012 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
29 Mar   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar   165    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
31 Mar   150    Near monthly predicted values to enhanced values 
                upto 15%. 
01 Apr   160    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    43400 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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