[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 176/130

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119
COMMENT: 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1211 1001
      Townsville           3   0112 2012
      Learmonth            1   2100 0000
      Canberra             1   0201 1002
      Hobart               2   1201 1001
      Casey(Ant)           2   2-21 0000
      Davis(Ant)           2   2211 0000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2122 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
28 Mar   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar   170    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
30 Mar   170    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
31 Mar   150    Near monthly predicted values to enhanced values 
                upto 15%. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    82300 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060