[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.6    1301UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    2227UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 189/142

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            195/147
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently elevated at 600km/sec 
due to coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed increased to 
700km/sec toward end of UT day. However, the north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained mildly northward 
over past 24 hours. The solar region (SEC 9885) that produced 
the M3 flare is located just north-east of the centre of the 
solar disk and further M class activity is probabale. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3443 3323
      Townsville          12   2333 3324
      Learmonth           17   3343 4324
      Canberra            14   2343 3324
      Hobart              19   3443 4323
      Casey(Ant)          19   45-3 3222
      Davis(Ant)          16   24-4 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1002 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar    16    active 
01 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
02 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Coronal hole expected to produce active periods over 
next two days. Effects of high speed stream reduced due to northward 
IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions possible local night 
hours at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
30 Mar   167

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15-30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
01 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions possible local night 
hours southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    31200 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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