[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 02

Fri Mar 22 11:49:59 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 174/128

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119
COMMENT: A faint full halo CME was observed around 1818UT on 
20 March, possibly from region 9871. A minor shock may arrive 
on 22 March because of this CME. Another partial halo CME was 
observed around 0042 UT on 21 March, which can probably be associated 
with a long duration C5.7 flare from region 9870 near the south-western 
limb. The intensity of the flare seems to be too low for this 
intense CME but the timings and their locations suggest a possible 
association between them. A minor shock may arrive on 23 March 
as a result of this CME. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 1122
      Townsville           6   -411 0021
      Learmonth            7   -2-- ----
      Canberra             8   2332 1121
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          11   33-3 22-3

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1101 3432     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar    12    Mostly unsetteled. Some possibility of going 
                up to active level because of a faint full halo 
                CME observed on 20 March. 
23 Mar    16    Active in the first half of the day and unsettled 
                in the second half because of a more intense partial 
                halo CME, possibly from region 9870 near the 
                south-western limb. Because of its location this
		CME is expected to cause only minor geo-magnetic activity.
24 Mar     6    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The faint full halo CME observed on 20 March and the 
partial halo CME observed on 21 March may have minor effect on 
the geomagnetic activity on 22 and 23 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 1545UT 20/03, Ended at 1655UT 20/03

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: A faint full halo CME observed on 20 March and a more intense 
partial halo CME observed on 21 March may cause minor deppressions 
in MUFs on 22 and 23 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 Mar   167

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar   160    Near monthly predicted values to enhanced values 
                upto 10%. 
23 Mar   150    near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar   160    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: A faint full halo CME observed on 20 March and a more intense 
partial halo CME observed on 21 March may cause a minor deppression 
in MUFs on 22 and 23 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    43600 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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