[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 02
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 21 16:17:57 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/0500Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
NOTE: REPORT ISSUED LATE DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS AT IPS.
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 188/141
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: A shock was observed in the solar wind at around 1307UT
on 20 March. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was only mildly southward (5nT) postshock, returning
northward around 18UT. Shock was not auto-detected due to density
component of solar wind not increasing until 30-40minutes after
the other parameters (speed, temp, total field). Another partial
halo (western solar hemisphere) CME observed around 1042 on 19
March, possibly from region 9866, was associated with an M1 flare.
Thus, a minor shock may arrive late 21/22 March. Also, a long
duration C4 flare was observed at 1919UT on 20 March. LASCO difference
imagery suggests that a weak full halo CME was associated with
this event, visible in LASCO C3 images after 1942UT. This may
produce a very weak shock on 23 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 2211 3422
Learmonth 7 2100 340-
Canberra 7 2300 330-
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 14 -322 3432
Davis(Ant) 11 2211 3432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAR :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 5533 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
22 Mar 18 active
23 Mar 16 active
COMMENT: Sudden impulse observed in geomagnetic field at 1329UT
on 20 March. Further Active periods expected on 22 and 23 March
due to recent mass ejection events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : Began at 1310UT 18/03, Ended at 2210UT 19/03
and, Began at 1545UT 20/03, Ended at 1655UT 20/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions degraded due to mild geomagnetic
activity and increased absorption due to elevated proton flux.
HF conditions at high latitudes are expected to improve before
a further mild degradation around 22-23 March due to a possible
glancing blow from recent mass ejection(s).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
20 Mar 167
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 160 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild dgerdation in HF conditions possible local night
hours southern Aus/NZ region 22-23 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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