[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1144UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 175/129

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   4542 2223
      Learmonth           19   5532 2224
      Canberra            18   4542 2223
      Hobart              17   4542 1123
      Casey(Ant)          32   56-4 3233
      Davis(Ant)          19   4542 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              91   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   2102 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    24    Mostly active. Isolated minor storm conditions 
                possible. 
21 Mar    20    Active 
22 Mar    14    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 19 March and 
is current for interval 19-20 March. Minor storm level was reached 
in the early hours on 19 March as Bz remained southward for approximately 
3 hours from 0200 to 0500 UT. A shock is expected to arrive in 
the forenoon on 20 March due to the CME observed on 18 March. 
Geomagnetic acitvity is expected to be predominantly at the active 
level with the possibility of reaching minor storm level for 
a short time. Another partial halo CME- observed around 1042 
on 19 March, possibly from region 9866, was associated with an 
M1 flare. Another minor shock may arrive on 21 March and the 
geomagnetic activity may be expected to go upto the active level. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor-Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1310UT 18/03, Ended at 2210UT 19/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          
21 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Slightly degraded condition are expected on 20 and 21 
March due to anticipated arrival of two CMEs observed on 18 and 
19 March. Increased absorption observed at high latitudes due
to proton event. The proton event has ended at 2210 UT but the 
proton flux rmains close to the event level.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 Mar   179

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar   170    Depressed upto 10% to normal in the early hours. 
                Normal to enhanced upto 15% in the late hours. 
21 Mar   160    Near monthly predicted values to enhanced values 
                upto 15%. 
22 Mar   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight degradation in MUFs is expected on 20 and 21 
March due to an expected arrival of two CMEs observed on 18 and 
19 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:   23.8 p/cc  Temp:    42200 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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