[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0216UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 178/131

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            175/129

A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1240UT on 18 
Mar. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2222 5333
      Learmonth           18   2111 6333
      Canberra            13   2212 5233
      Hobart              12   1211 5232
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-33 4433
      Davis(Ant)          21   3333 5433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          17   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
20 Mar    24    Active 
21 Mar    14    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 16 March and 
is current for interval 18-19 March. The CME observed on 15 March 
did not lead to a geomagnetic storm as Bz remained northward. 
Another partial halo CME,possibly from region 9866, was observed 
around 0342 on 18 March. Another shock is expected to arrive 
in the late hours of 19 March or early hours of 20 March. This 
can raise the geomagnetic activity level to 'active' or 'isolated 
minor storms'. 
A moderate (56nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1323UT on 18 Mar. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 18 03 2002 1310UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
18 Mar   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 40% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar   160    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
20 Mar   130    Depressed upto 10% to normal in the early hours. 
                Normal to enhanced upto 15% in the late hours. 
21 Mar   140    Near monthly predicted values to enhanced values 
                upto 15%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for interval 18-19 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    19400 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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