[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/SF    1931UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/--    1019UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 184/137

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: LASCO has reported a higher shock speed for the recent M2 
flare/CME which would give an earlier shock arrival window of 
06-19UT on 18 March. Solar region 9866 is decaying. The M4 event 
was produced by solar region 9871 east of 9866. This region shows 
slow growth and has further M class flare potential. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1110 1122
      Darwin               5   112- 221-
      Learmonth            0   1000 0012
      Canberra             3   0000 1132
      Hobart               1   0000 1121
      Casey(Ant)           7   222- ----
      Davis(Ant)           3   2111 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1001 2321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar    25    active 
19 Mar    40    Minor storm 
20 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 16 March and 
is current for interval 18-19 March. Geomagnetic storm conditions 
are expected to begin second half of 18 March and into 19 March 
from recent full halo mass ejection. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event. Proton flux remains elevated.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
19 Mar      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally degraded HF conditions expected late 18-19 
March due to anticipated CME arrival. High latitude HF comms
may experience increased absorption due to elevated proton
flux.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
17 Mar   182

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 40% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar   150    Initially enhanced 10-20% then depressed 10-15% 
19 Mar   100    depressed 10-20% 
20 Mar   120    near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for interval 18-19 March. Depressed and degraded 
HF conditions are expected 18-19 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    34600 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060