[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1F 15/2310UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 185/138

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: The long duration M2.1 event produced by solar region 
9866 located at S08W03 was associated with a full halo mass ejection. 
Event parameters suggest a shock arrival window 18/18UT-19/02UT. 
Solar region 9866 remains magnetically complex and further M 
class activity is expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2112
      Darwin               3   1211 1112
      Learmonth            4   2211 2102
      Canberra             5   1121 213-
      Hobart               4   1121 212-
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 21--
      Davis(Ant)           6   2222 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1011 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Mar    25    active 
19 Mar    40    Minor storm 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to begin second 
half of 18 March and into 19 March from recent full halo mass 
ejection. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event, proton flux enhancement began around 
03UT on 16 March following long duration M2 flare. Flux peaked
around 4-5 PFUs at round 14UT. Flux declining currently at 1PFU.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
18 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions may be degraded by increased 
absorption due to proton flux enhancement following M2 flare 
/CME. Generally degraded HF conditions expected late 18-19 March 
due to anticipated CME arrival. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Mar   179

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Mar   120    Initially enhanced 10-20% then depressed 10-15% 
19 Mar    80    depressed 10-20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 15 March 
and is current for interval 16-18 March (SWFs) . Depressed and 
degraded HF conditions are expected 18-19 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    36900 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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