[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 16 10:42:44 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 2323UT Confirmed lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 176/130
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar region of interest 9866 showed some decline in
area overnight, but has retained its magnetic complexity. This
region produced the M2.1 event, associated with a possible moderate
strength type II and IV radio sweep, observed on the Culgoora
Spectrograph. The interpretation of radio sweep signature was
difficult. If this interpretation is correct, a mass ejection
may have occured in association with the slow rise flare. This
inference will need to be confirmed by viewing LASCO imagery.
9866 is now more or less in the middle if the solar disk, a good
geoeffective location.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1827UT
on 15 Mar, probably a glancing blow from recent CME activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 1221 0123
Darwin 4 1121 0133
Learmonth 3 1221 0024
Canberra 4 0121 0132
Hobart 3 0121 0122
Casey(Ant) 7 2332 1013
Davis(Ant) 7 1332 0123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAR :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 7 Quiet
17 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar 16 active
COMMENT: Chance of possible CME effects on 18 Mar. Preliminary
forecast, this will be confirmed by viewing LASCO imagery as
it becomes available.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes
only during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
15 Mar 171
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 170 15-20% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar 170 15-20% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar 170 15-20% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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