[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/2B    0150UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/SF 13/2335UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 181/134

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: The solar region that produced the M5 flare remains 
magnetically complex and further M class flares are expected, 
with the chance of an X class event. Solar wind speed declined 
from 420 to 360km/sec over the UT day. The M5 and recent M1 event 
both appeared to possibly be CME associated, however, these mass 
ejections were non-earth directed. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2122 1101
      Darwin               4   3111 1101
      Learmonth            5   2--3 1102
      Canberra             2   1111 1102
      Hobart               2   2110 1101
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--- ----
      Davis(Ant)           7   2233 2101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2122 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     6    Quiet 
16 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Chance of very weak CME effects on 16 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Enhancement of 15 to 30% is expeceted in the MUFs compared 
to the predicted values. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 Mar   180

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 45% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar   155    15 to 35% above predicted monthly values 
16 Mar   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
17 Mar   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    68700 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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