[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 12/2313UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 184/137

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            200/152


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9839 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 14 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 2112
      Darwin               5   2122 2112
      Learmonth            5   3121 2011
      Canberra             5   2122 2112
      Hobart               5   2222 2111
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)           3   ---- 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAR : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Hobart              80   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2123 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Mar    12    Unsettled 
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A partial halo CME was reported at about 2300UT on 11 
March. There is a chance for week shock arrival 0900-2100UT on 
14 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Mar   174

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar   165    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Mar   155    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Mar   145    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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