[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 178/131

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9839 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 14 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3232 3323
      Darwin              10   3232 2323
      Learmonth            9   3232 2313
      Canberra            10   3232 3222
      Hobart              10   3232 3222
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          22   3354 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAR : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   3322 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods exist on 12 and 13 Mar due to 
possible shock passage effects from 9 Mar long duration M2 flare 
event. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 Mar   178

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Mar   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    83500 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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