[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 23 10:36:20 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1114UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 172/126
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: A halo CME was observed around 1342UT on 22 March on
the south-western limb, which can be associated with the currently
going proton event and a long duration M1 flare, which peaked
around 1114 on 22 March. A minor shock may arrive in the late
hours on 24 March or early hours on 25 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 3433 1002
Learmonth 6 3322 1001
Canberra 9 4323 1003
Hobart 7 2333 1002
Casey(Ant) 31 35-- ----
Davis(Ant) 15 3444 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2133 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 10 Active in the first half of the day and unsettled
in the second half because of an intense partial
halo CME, possibly from region 9870 near the
south-western limb.
24 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled
25 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: A partial halo CME observed on 21 March and another
halo CME observed on 22 March may have minor effect on the geomagnetic
activity on 23, 24(late hours) and 25(early hours) March.
A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0407UT on 22 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
24 Mar Normal Normal Fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: The CMEs observed on 21 and 22 March may cause minor
deppressions in MUFs on 23, 24(late hours) and 25 (early hours)
March on high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
22 Mar 183
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 165 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 155 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 160 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT:
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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