[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1114UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 172/126

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119
COMMENT: A halo CME was observed around 1342UT on 22 March on 
the south-western limb, which can be associated with the currently 
going proton event and a long duration M1 flare, which peaked 
around 1114 on 22 March. A minor shock may arrive in the late 
hours on 24 March or early hours on 25 March. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3433 1002
      Learmonth            6   3322 1001
      Canberra             9   4323 1003
      Hobart               7   2333 1002
      Casey(Ant)          31   35-- ----
      Davis(Ant)          15   3444 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2133 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar    10    Active in the first half of the day and unsettled 
                in the second half because of an intense partial 
                halo CME, possibly from region 9870 near the 
                south-western limb. 
24 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: A partial halo CME observed on 21 March and another 
halo CME observed on 22 March may have minor effect on the geomagnetic 
activity on 23, 24(late hours) and 25(early hours) March. 
A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0407UT on 22 Mar. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair          
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: The CMEs observed on 21 and 22 March may cause minor 
deppressions in MUFs on 23, 24(late hours) and 25 (early hours) 
March on high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
22 Mar   183

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar   165    near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar   155    near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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