[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION:YELLOW
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 175/129

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            175/129



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3223 2333
      Darwin              10   3222 2334
      Learmonth            9   3122 2333
      Canberra             8   2122 2333
      Hobart               8   3122 2233
      Casey(Ant)          18   ---4 3333
      Davis(Ant)          18   3343 3432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   1132 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar    25    Unsettled to active periods with possibility 
                of reaching minor storm levels occassionally. 
06 Mar    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
07 Mar    14    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 4 March and 
is current for interval 4-6 March. Active periods are possible 
for 5-6 March due to a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 5-6 March as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Mar   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 110

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar   130    5 to 10% degradation to enhancement of 5 to 15 
                % possible. 
06 Mar   140    Mostly near monthly predicted values. Enhancement 
                of upto 15 % and degradation of upto 5% is possible. 
07 Mar   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 4 March 
and is current for interval 4-5 March. Slightly degraded HF conditions 
are possible at times for 5-6 March as the result of mildly elevated 
geomagnetic activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    62300 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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