[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 4 10:52:08 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 183/136
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: A CME observed at approximately 22UT on 2 March does
not appear to be associated with any event on the frontside of
the sun. It is therefore assumed to be a backside event and
therefore not geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 2333 2224
Darwin 8 2223 2225
Learmonth 7 2222 2223
Canberra 8 1223 2324
Hobart 9 1233 2324
Casey(Ant) 15 3443 3123
Davis(Ant) 15 33-4 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAR :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 16 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
05 Mar 18 Unsettled with possible active periods.
06 Mar 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: Active periods are possible for 4-6 March due to an
anticipated high speed coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times
for 4-5 March as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
03 Mar 176
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Enhanced to near predicted monthly values at all stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 110
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 140 Enhanced 5-15% to depressed 5-15% at times.
05 Mar 135 Enhanced 5-15% to depressed 5-15% at times.
06 Mar 145 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%.
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times
for 4-5 March as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+04 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 61300 K Bz: 7 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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