[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 191/143

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            180/133



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2321 2222
      Darwin               8   2321 2322
      Learmonth            9   3222 2323
      Canberra             7   2321 2212
      Hobart               5   1321 1212
      Casey(Ant)           5   ---- 221-
      Davis(Ant)           9   2332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   4332 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     8    Quiet 
04 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
05 Mar    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
COMMENT: Active periods are possible for 4-5 March due to an 
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 Mar   182

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 110

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar   165    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Mar   135    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    58100 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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