[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 6 10:50:14 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 172/126
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speed observed over past 24 hours
due to coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from 500km/sec
to 700km/sec after 04UT. Solar wind speed is currently at 600km/sec.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9825 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 7 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 23 4534 3333
Darwin 21 4533 3333
Learmonth 18 4433 3333
Canberra 21 4533 3333
Hobart 20 4533 3323
Casey(Ant) 32 56-4 3322
Davis(Ant) 42 4655 44-4
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAR :
Darwin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 103 (Major storm)
Hobart 135 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2212 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 16 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
07 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled
08 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 4 March and
is current for interval 4-6 March. Active periods are possible
for 6 March due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times
for 6 March as the result of recent slightly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
05 Mar 157
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced greater than 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30% at
times.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 140 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar 150 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar 160 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times
for 6 March as the result of recent slightly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+04 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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