[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 17 09:24:52 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 137/91
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 1332 2112
Darwin 8 2332 2122
Townsville 7 1332 2112
Learmonth 7 1332 2112
Canberra 6 2231 2111
Hobart 4 1221 2111
Casey(Ant) 6 2321 20--
Davis(Ant) 8 1332 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUN :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2112 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the presence of a weak
coronal hole solar wind stream over the past 18 hours. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed over the next few days
due to relatively low solar flux levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
16 Jun 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 100 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 100 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 100 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed over the next few days
due to relatively low solar flux levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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