[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 135/89

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 1123
      Darwin               4   2211 1122
      Townsville           1   1101 0013
      Learmonth            2   1201 0022
      Canberra             1   1101 0012
      Hobart               3   0101 1313
      Casey(Ant)           3   2211 10--
      Davis(Ant)           7   1322 2124
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUN : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2112 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
17 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
18 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed over the next few days 
due to relatively low solar flux levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Jun   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 5-15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed over the next few days 
due to relatively low solar flux levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    48000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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