[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 131/85

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Returning regions may elevate solar activity over the 
next few days. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9963 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 15 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1111
      Darwin               4   2211 1113
      Townsville           0   1000 0013
      Learmonth            2   1111 0111
      Canberra             1   1000 0110
      Hobart               1   0010 1111
      Casey(Ant)           3   2211 1011
      Davis(Ant)           4   2221 1021
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUN : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2323 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 Jun   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    54200 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060