[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 133/87

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9963 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 15 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 1212
      Darwin               6   2221 2222
      Townsville           4   2220 1213
      Learmonth            4   1221 1121
      Canberra             4   1221 1211
      Hobart               4   1221 1111
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 2111
      Davis(Ant)          13   3432 22-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUN : 
      Darwin             141   (Severe storm)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   3213 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jun    12    unsettled, chance active periods. 
COMMENT: Weak 27 day recurrent pattern 15 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Jun   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    48800 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060