[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 143/97

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1102
      Darwin               4   2221 1113
      Townsville           3   2220 0102
      Learmonth            3   2220 0102
      Canberra             2   1211 0002
      Hobart               2   1211 1000
      Casey(Ant)           6   2331 1000
      Davis(Ant)           5   2231 1113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUN : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2333 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     6    Quiet 
19 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
17 Jun   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060