[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 152/107

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             150/105


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9957 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 11 Jun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2223 3332
      Darwin              12   2233 3332
      Townsville           7   320- ----
      Learmonth           12   2233 3332
      Canberra            14   2334 3322
      Hobart              13   2224 3332
      Casey(Ant)          10   2333 2223
      Davis(Ant)          11   23-3 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUN : 
      Darwin              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              66   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   3333 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 Jun   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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