[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 148/102

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            160/114



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2223 3222
      Darwin              10   2233 3222
      Townsville          10   2233 3222
      Learmonth           10   2223 3232
      Canberra             9   2223 3222
      Hobart               8   2123 3122
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 11--
      Davis(Ant)          11   2333 22-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUN : 
      Darwin              66   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   2234 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 Jun   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   135000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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