[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 159/113

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1111
      Darwin               4   2221 0111
      Townsville           3   2210 0112
      Learmonth            5   -321 1021
      Canberra             3   2210 1111
      Hobart               3   2210 1100
      Casey(Ant)           4   2220 1111
      Davis(Ant)           9   2332 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JUN : 
      Darwin              54   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   3343 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jun    12    Unsettled 
08 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 
on 7 and 8 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Jun   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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