[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 155/109

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2-32 1211
      Darwin               9   --42 1212
      Townsville           5   2-22 0212
      Learmonth            7   3--- 1210
      Canberra             6   2-32 0211
      Hobart               4   2-21 0211
      Casey(Ant)           5   1-21 1221
      Davis(Ant)           7   1--2 2131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUN : 
      Darwin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   3222 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun    12    Unsettled 
08 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
09 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 
7 and 8 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
06 Jun   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jun   135    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jun   120    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    81900 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060