[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 170/124

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: ACE EPAM shock precursor data channel continues to show
no sign of increasing flux, and shock signatures are now seem 
unlikely. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz was mildly southward 00-09UT, and wind speed remains 
mildy elevated probably a weak coronal hole wind stream signature. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9948 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 5 Jun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3342 3122
      Darwin              11   3333 2222
      Townsville          12   3343 2122
      Learmonth           12   3332 3231
      Canberra            12   3342 3122
      Hobart              12   3342 3121
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2122
      Davis(Ant)          18   -443 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUN : 
      Darwin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   3332 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods due to southward IMF and mildly elevated 
solar wind speeds. Increased geomagnetic activity from recent 
assumed mass ejection events has failed to eventuate, now not 
expected. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Spread F observed at high latitudes yesterday. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Jun   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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