[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 02

Sun Jun 2 09:13:47 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0357UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/SF    1049UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 179/132

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124
COMMENT: The M1 event at 0350UT was from the moderately large 
solar region 9973 in the south-east quadrant of the solar disk 
(S17E23). The second M1 event at 1049UT came from the solar region 
just east of 9973 (S30E63). The event from region 9973 was associated 
with TypeII/IV radio sweep signatures. A mild proton enhancement 
is possible from this event. No LASCO imagery was available for 
01 Jun. At present a mass ejection is assumed (due type II/IV), 
and it is also assumed that due to 9973 location at east 23, 
that the assumed mass ejection event was predominately directed 
eastward. Event data suggests a weak shock is possible 02-16UT 
on 04 Jun. A weak discontinuity was observed in ACE solar wind 
parameters at around 1530UT. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mildly southward after 
this time. Solar wind velocity then gradually ramped up from 
320-360km/sec. This ramp-up may indicate a possible mild coronal hole 
wind stream entry. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   0111 0102
      Darwin               3   1211 0113
      Townsville           1   0111 0102
      Learmonth            3   1--- ----
      Canberra             0   0000 0102
      Hobart               0   0000 0001
      Casey(Ant)           1   0211 0001
      Davis(Ant)           2   1121 0002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JUN : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2112 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    15    unsettled, chance active periods. 
03 Jun    15    unsettled, chance active periods. 
04 Jun    15    unsettled, chance active periods. 
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions possible next few days due 
to possible glancing blows from recent CME activity, and possible 
coronal hole wind stream effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
01 Jun   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
03 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
04 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Chance of mild degradation in HF conditions local night 
hours, next two days, southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    27500 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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