[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 3 09:20:51 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2044UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 175/129
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar region 9973 near the centre of the solar disk
produced a C5 type II event starting at 2346 on 01 Jun. Shopck
speed 600km/sec. The M1 event was from solar region 9979 in far
south-east quadrant of the solar disk. The flare was reported
with a type II sweep, speed 1079km/sec. Solar region 9977 in
far south-west of solar disk also contributed a slow type II
(323km/sec) with a C8 flare at 1015UT. It also appears that the
Earth has entered a moderate speed coronal hole wind stream (450km/sec).
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic filed
fluctuated southward 11-17UT on 02 Jun. It nows seems that we
could have a sequence of mild shock events expected to arrive
over interval 03-05 Jun (Todays type II events are expected to
arrive first half 05 Jun). At present ACE EPAM precursor data
channel shows no increasing flux trend. No LASCO to confirm
sweep data.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 3322 2333
Darwin 11 3321 2333
Townsville 12 3322 3333
Learmonth 9 3212 2332
Canberra 11 3311 3333
Hobart 10 2311 3333
Casey(Ant) 12 4422 2223
Davis(Ant) 11 -432 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUN :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1022 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 18 Unsettled to active
04 Jun 20 Active to minor storm
05 Jun 17 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 2 June and
is current for interval 3-4 June. A trend of increasing geomagnetic
activity now expected over next two to three days, due to sequence
of recent Type II radio sweeps, and coronal hole wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Spread F observed at high latitudes yesterday. Moderately
degraded conditions expected at high latitudes next two to three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
02 Jun 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 130 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
04 Jun 130 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
05 Jun 130 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 2 June
and is current for interval 3-4 June. Mild degradation in HF
conditions local night hours, next two days, southern Aus/NZ
region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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