[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    0016UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 182/135

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119
COMMENT: A type IV sweep was observed on the Culgoora spectrograph 
starting at 2312UT on 30 May, probably in association with the 
M2 flare. Later viewing of LASCO imagery showed a mass ejection 
to the south-east. A brief bright arc was observed in Culgoora 
H-alpha imagery from the area just east of solar region 9973 
at around 2300UT. The eastward location of this event will reduce 
geoeffectiveness however a weak signature may be seen in the 
solar wind on 02 Jun. Also, a weak type II sweep (speed 400km/sec) 
was observed starting at 0304UT on the spectrograph and LASCO 
imagery showed a mass ejection to the north-west, and appears 
non-geoeffective. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2210 0001
      Darwin               2   2200 0012
      Townsville           1   1100 0012
      Learmonth            1   2110 0000
      Canberra             0   1100 0001
      Hobart               0   1100 0001
      Casey(Ant)           4   2321 0000
      Davis(Ant)           4   2231 000-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAY : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2133 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
02 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
03 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions possible next two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
31 May   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
02 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
03 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    99600 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060