[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 30 09:28:20 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 28/2313UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.5 0023UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.2 0239UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.8 1033UT possible lower European
M5.0 1044UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 234/184
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: Moderate shock observed in solar wind 1240UT. The interplanetary
magnetic field was northward postschock arrival, reducing geoeffectiveness.
Flares remain possible from active solar regions 39 and 44 which are both
show some decline. Todays first M5 at 0238UT event was associated with a
Type II radio sweep. However, no Type IV was observed, and the event was
not very long in duration, about 15mins. Event data suggests a possible
weak shock arrival window 31/0700UT to 01/0800UT. Lasco imagery around
the time of this first event appeared to show nothing too significant.
No Type II/IV sweeps were reported overnight in association with the
latter longer duration M5. However Lasco C2 (no C3) imagery at 1230UT shows a
partial halo mass ejection predominately north-west directed but curling
around to the south-east of the solar disk. It is unclear if this is
related to the M5 event. Also, curiously, the ACE EPAM shock precursor
flux data channel has not dropped post-shock, and at time of issue is
still rising, implying if this trend continues, another shock may be
in the pipe.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 2221 4212
Darwin 10 3222 4212
Townsville 8 2221 4211
Learmonth 11 2121 5211
Canberra 7 2211 4202
Hobart 6 2211 3202
Casey(Ant) 11 3-31 3322
Davis(Ant) 11 3--2 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4323 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 14 Unsettled
31 Jul 7 Quiet
01 Aug 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: A weak (10nT) and slow impulse was observed in IPS magnetometer
data at around 1321UT. No significant activity followed. Geomagnetic storm
forecast nervously dumped. ACE precursor data seems to imply another shock
could arrive over next 24 hours, even though one has already come. Active
periods may be experienced 1 Aug due to weak effects from M5 events on 29 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions now not expected to to weak geomagnetic
activity following CME shock arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 28 July
and is current for interval 29-30 July. Degraded HF conditions
now not expected due to weak geomagnetic activity post CME shock
arrival.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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