[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 29 09:22:01 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0036UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 2313UT Confirmed lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 239/188
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 245/195 240/189
COMMENT: ACE EPAM precursor channel is yet to show an increasing
flux trend signature, from recent M8 mass ejection. Major flares
possible from active solar region 39 and to a lesser extent region
44, which is showing slight decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 4322 2222
Darwin 9 3322 2223
Townsville 10 4322 2213
Learmonth 12 4322 2---
Canberra 7 3322 1112
Hobart 7 3322 1112
Casey(Ant) 18 4532 2230
Davis(Ant) 16 4443 222-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUL :
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 19 4334 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 40 Initially quiet to unsettled with active to minor
storm levels expected late in the UT day.
30 Jul 20 active
31 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 28 July and
is current for interval 28-29 July. The halo CME observed in
association with the M8-flare of July 26 is now expected to impact
the Earth late in the UT day of 29 July, due to lack of precursor
signature on ACE EPAM data channel. Minor storm storm levels
are expected to follow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event. However, two solar regions are capable
of producing a proton flare.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Fair Fair-Poor Poor
30 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected for late 29-30 July
due to increased geomagnetic activity from an anticipated CME.
Depressed MUFs likely in northern hemoisphere during this interval.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 120 10% enhanced/near predicted monthly values.
30 Jul 100 near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 28 July
and is current for interval 29-30 July. Degraded HF conditions
are expected for 29-30 July due to increased geomagnetic activity
from an anticipated CME. Strong depressions not expected due
to seasonal factors. Degraded local night conditions expected.
Brief depressions may ne experienced after local dawn 30 July
if geomagnetic activity eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C9.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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