[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 227/177


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            215/165




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2221 1232
      Darwin               6   2211 1232
      Townsville           5   2211 1132
      Learmonth            5   2210 0232
      Canberra             4   1110 0232
      Hobart               4   1110 0231
      Casey(Ant)          10   3331 1231
      Davis(Ant)           9   2331 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2322 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     9    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
02 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A glancing effect of the CME observed on 29 July 
may cause a slight increase in the geo-magnetic activity 
on 1 and 2 August. The geo-magnetic activity is expected 
to remain at quiet to unsettled level on 31 July and then
rise to unsettled to active levels on 1 and 2 August.
However,Bz has remained predominantly northwards on 30 
July. If Bz continues to remain northward on 1 and 2 
August, the geo-magnetic activity may not rise upto the 
otherwise expected active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: An expected rise in geomagnetic activity on 1 and 
2 August, due to the possible glancing effect of the CME 
observed on 29 July, may cause mild degradations in the HF 
conditions on high latitudes on 1 and 2 August. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 55% with short periods 
      of minor depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul   118    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
01 Aug   115    near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug   115    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed in 
the southern Australian regions on 1 and 2 August due to an 
expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity on these days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 466 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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