[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0342UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 134/88

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   132/86             132/86             130/84
COMMENT: M1 was from region 17 which has now rotated offdisk. 
The earth has now entered a coronal hole high speed wind stream, 
with solar wind speed now modaerately elevated at 550km/sec with 
a mildly southward IMF. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 3433
      Darwin              16   3333 3433
      Townsville          15   3333 2434
      Learmonth           16   3333 3433
      Canberra            16   3333 3433
      Hobart              15   3333 3333
      Casey(Ant)          15   3343 2--3
      Davis(Ant)          20   4444 3-0-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUL : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              89   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3233 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul    18    active 
08 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 4 July and 
is current for interval 5-7 July. Coronal hole induced activity 
expected to produce active conditions particularly on 07 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected next few days 
at mid to high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
06 Jul   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours 
southern Aus/NZ region next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:   11.9 p/cc  Temp:    81200 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060