[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1158UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 137/91

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   132/86             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: The M1 event was long duration with a slow decline, and is 
beleived to be from region 17, now behind the south-west limb of the sun. 
This event produced a 10 Mev proton event which remains in progress. 
A western semi-halo mass ejection was visible in LASCO C3 imagery 
after 1218UT. As this event originated from a region around the 
westlimb, geoeffectiveness is expected to be much reduced. Another 
mass ejection associated event was observed at 1700UT with the 
eruption of a solar filament in the north-west (N11W49) solar 
quadrant. The CME associated with this event was first visible 
in C2 at 1830UT, and at this stage appears predominately westward 
directed. This event is likely to produce a solar wind shock 
on 09 July. Solar wind speed declined from 525 to 400km/sec over 
UT day as coronal hole induced effects dissapate. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 2322
      Darwin               8   2222 2323
      Townsville           7   2112 2323
      Learmonth            7   2212 2311
      Canberra             7   2122 2313
      Hobart               6   1122 2312
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1222
      Davis(Ant)          21   ---4 3---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Hobart              92   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             23   4444 3443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul    13    Unsettled 
09 Jul    20    active, chance minor storm periods. 
10 Jul    12    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Moderate disturbance expected 09 July mostly due to 
erupting solar filament. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 07 2002 1820UT and 
is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Poor(PCA)
09 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at high latitudes due 
to proton event late in UT day. Degraded conditions expected 
09 July dues to recent filamant eruption. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
07 Jul   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected local night hours southern 
Aus/NZ region 09 July, due to recent mass ejection activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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