[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 8 09:10:27 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1158UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 137/91
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: The M1 event was long duration with a slow decline, and is
beleived to be from region 17, now behind the south-west limb of the sun.
This event produced a 10 Mev proton event which remains in progress.
A western semi-halo mass ejection was visible in LASCO C3 imagery
after 1218UT. As this event originated from a region around the
westlimb, geoeffectiveness is expected to be much reduced. Another
mass ejection associated event was observed at 1700UT with the
eruption of a solar filament in the north-west (N11W49) solar
quadrant. The CME associated with this event was first visible
in C2 at 1830UT, and at this stage appears predominately westward
directed. This event is likely to produce a solar wind shock
on 09 July. Solar wind speed declined from 525 to 400km/sec over
UT day as coronal hole induced effects dissapate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 2222 2322
Darwin 8 2222 2323
Townsville 7 2112 2323
Learmonth 7 2212 2311
Canberra 7 2122 2313
Hobart 6 1122 2312
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 1222
Davis(Ant) 21 ---4 3---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Hobart 92 (Minor storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23 4444 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 13 Unsettled
09 Jul 20 active, chance minor storm periods.
10 Jul 12 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Moderate disturbance expected 09 July mostly due to
erupting solar filament.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 07 2002 1820UT and
is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Poor(PCA)
09 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at high latitudes due
to proton event late in UT day. Degraded conditions expected
09 July dues to recent filamant eruption.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
07 Jul 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected local night hours southern
Aus/NZ region 09 July, due to recent mass ejection activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 545 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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