[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/SF    1326UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 139/93

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind data rose 320-440km/sec over UT day, probably 
in association with the gradual entry of a coronal hole wind 
stream. Also, a small discontinuity was observed in solar wind 
data around 12UT, and EPAM data has peaked just above the first 
IPS precusor flux threshold around this time. This appears to 
indicate a the arrival of partial shock signature from recent 
mass ejections. Todays M3 event was from region 17 on the south 
west limb of the sun. Event was CME associated. However due to 
west-limb location of region and predominately westward direction 
of mass ejection, this event is considered non-geoeffective. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 2233
      Darwin               8   2222 2233
      Townsville           7   1222 2233
      Learmonth            8   2222 2232
      Canberra             7   1222 2233
      Hobart               7   1222 1232
      Casey(Ant)           7   2222 1322
      Davis(Ant)           9   2242 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3211 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Jul    18    active 
08 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 4 July and 
is current for interval 5-7 July. Coronal hole induced activity 
expected to produce active conditions particularly on 07 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event. Mildly increased 10MeV flux early 
in UT day 05 July.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Jul   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours 
southern Aus/NZ region next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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