[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0734UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 146/100

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: ACE EPAM shock precursor data channel shows an increasing 
ion flux trend second half of 04 July. Flux levels are currently 
below first precursor alert threshold. This may indicate that 
a weak shock from recent CME activity is enroute, possibly arriving 
05 July. Active solar region 17 is now approaching the south-west 
limb. Solar region 19 (south-east quadrant) may produce isolated 
low level M class events, as is showing increased magnetic complexity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0013
      Darwin               4   1221 1023
      Townsville           1   1110 0013
      Learmonth            1   1110 0012
      Canberra             0   1000 0002
      Hobart               1   1110 0002
      Casey(Ant)           2   1220 0013
      Davis(Ant)           4   2131 101-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   3222 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
06 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Jul    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 4 July and 
is current for interval 5-7 July. Possible glancing blow from 
recent CME activity on 05 July. Coronal hole induced activity 
expected to produce active conditions particularly on 07 July. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected next few days 
at mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Jul   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 4 July 
and is current for interval 4-5 July (SWFs) . Mildly degraded 
conditions expected local night hours southern Aus/NZ region 
next 3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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