[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 261/211

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   265/216            260/210            260/210
COMMENT: Solar region 9800, located just north-east of the centre 
of the solar disk, has good flare potential. Solar wind conditions 
were nominal over past 24 hours. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9773 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 30 Jan. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 9775 is also due for return to the south-east 
limb around this day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 2112
      Darwin               3   2111 1103
      Learmonth           15   33-- ----
      Canberra             4   2221 1102
      Hobart               4   2221 1102
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--3 2222
      Davis(Ant)          11   3--- 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2112 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    16    active 
31 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 28 January and 
is current for interval 30-31 January. Active periods are possible 
late 30-31 Jan due to recent disappearing solar filament. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for most of today. Mild 
degradation possible 30-31 Jan, in association with anticipated 
mild geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
29 Jan   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Jan   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Feb   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions, with enhanced MUFs expected. 
Mildly degraded comms conditions may be experienced during local 
night hours southern Aus/NZ region 30-31 Jan. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    77900 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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