[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 256/206

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   255/205            250/200            245/195



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1112
      Darwin               1   0001 1111
      Learmonth            7   -2-- ----
      Canberra             0   0010 1002
      Hobart               1   0000 1112
      Casey(Ant)          11   23-- ----
      Davis(Ant)           8   3222 2133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2112 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 28 January and 
is current for interval 30-31 January. Active periods are still 
possible for 31 Jan due to a recent disappearing solar filament. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions possible at times for 31 
Jan in association with anticipated mild geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
30 Jan   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
01 Feb   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
02 Feb   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions possible at times for 31 
Jan in association with anticipated mild geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    73800 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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