[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 260/210

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   255/205            260/210            260/210
COMMENT: A solar filament has reportedly disappeared from the 
south-east quadrant of the solar disk (last observed at 27/2116UT, 
first noticed missing 28/1318UT). LASCO C3 imagery shows a south-east 
directed CME beginning at 28/1142UT. A faint CME signature can 
be seen later to the north-west at 1842UT, as the mass ejection 
expands, suggesting a partial halo mass ejection. LASCO EIT imagery 
shows some motion on south-east quadrant of the solar disk starting 
around 10UT. So, if these events have been correctly associated 
then some mild effects are likely late on 30 Jan from this event. 
Isolated M class flaring expected over next few days (solar regions 
9800 (NE) and 9802 (SE) have flare potential). 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9773 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 30 Jan. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 9775 is also due for return to the south-east 
limb around this day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3222 2223
      Darwin               5   2112 2223
      Learmonth            8   3312 2222
      Canberra             6   2122 2223
      Hobart               7   2222 2223
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--- ----
      Davis(Ant)          17   33-- 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JAN : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3312 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan     7    Quiet 
30 Jan    16    active 
31 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions generaaly expected. Active periods 
are possible lat 30-31 Jan due to recent disappearing solar filament. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today. Mild degradation 
possible 30-31 Jan, in association with anticipated mild geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
28 Jan   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Jan   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Jan   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions, with enhanced MUFs expected. 
Mildly degraded comms conditions may be experienced during local 
night hours southern Aus/NZ region 30-31 Jan. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    71700 K  Bz:   5 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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