[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.9/1F    1840UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 212/163

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1112
      Darwin               1   1110 0013
      Learmonth            2   2210 0011
      Canberra             0   0100 0001
      Hobart               1   1110 0001
      Casey(Ant)           5   3--2 110-
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1101 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    12    Unsettled, chance of active periods local first 
                half of UT day. 
07 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Jan     5    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is generally expected to be quiet. 
Chance of brief active periods on 06 Jan from recent Type II 
on 03 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 2125UT 30/12, Ended at 0130UT 05/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Chance for mild degradation at high latitudes on 06 
Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Jan   171

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 4 January 
and is current for interval 5-7 January (SWFs) . Enhanced MUFs 
again expected today. Mild degradation expected local night hours 
southern Aus/Nz region 06 Jan. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    24000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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