[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 197/149

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            195/147
COMMENT: Solar wind speed shows mildly increasing trend near 
end of UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz, became southward by 5nT toward end of UT day. 
This may be a solar sector boundary crossing. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1213
      Darwin               3   2100 2213
      Learmonth            3   2010 1212
      Canberra             1   1000 1203
      Hobart               2   1000 1213
      Casey(Ant)           7   3322 120-
      Davis(Ant)           7   2322 2213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2001 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan    12    Unsettled 
08 Jan     5    Quiet 
09 Jan     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expected active periods on 06 Jan from recent Type II 
on 03 Jan did not eventuate. Chance of mild activity on 07 Jan 
if Bz remains southward. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 2125UT 30/12, Ended at 0130UT 05/01
 
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
06 Jan   194

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 4 January 
and is current for interval 5-7 January (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 293 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    23700 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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