[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 5 10:12:29 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 1749UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 218/168
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar xray flux shows an increasing background trend
over past 12hrs, this may indicate that M class flare activity
is becoming more likely today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 2221 2122
Darwin 3 1111 1023
Learmonth 3 2111 1111
Canberra 2 1111 1011
Hobart 3 1111 1110
Casey(Ant) 11 3333 2122
Davis(Ant) 12 333- 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JAN :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 1111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 3 Quiet
06 Jan 12 Unsettled, chance of active periods local first
half of UT day.
07 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is generally expected to be quiet.
Chance of brief active periods on 06 Jan from recent Type II
on 03 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and
is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Fair-Normal
06 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Long running 10MeV proton event just beginning to drop
below event threshold at time of issue of this report. Chance
for mild degradation at high latitudes on 06 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
04 Jan 169
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 170 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 170 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 170 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Mild degradation
expected local night hours southern Aus/Nz region 06 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 76100 K Bz: 2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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