[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 220/170

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            215/165            210/161
COMMENT: Type II radio sweep observed 0220UT on 03 Jan associated 
with C5 flare, from region 9767 located at S11E12. Shock speed 
of 500km/sec. Event parameters give a shock arrival window of 
00-14UT on 6 Jan. However, the Type II was not followed by a 
Type IV, so geoeffectiveness of this event is considered low. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2222 1003
      Darwin               4   2221 1014
      Learmonth            4   2222 1003
      Canberra             4   2222 0003
      Hobart               2   1221 0002
      Casey(Ant)           7   ---3 2112
      Davis(Ant)          12   334- 3102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1111 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     5    Quiet 
05 Jan     3    Quiet 
06 Jan    12    Unsettled, chance of active periods local first 
                half of UT day. 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be quiet. Chance of 
brief active periods on 06 Jan from recent Type II on 03 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Polar HF circuits currently affected by proton event 
which is slowly declining, now nearing event threshhold, and 
should end today. Chance for mild degradation at high latitudes 
on 06 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 Jan   170

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
05 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs became enhanced more strongly than expected. Further 
strong enhancements are expected today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    61100 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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