[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.3    1226UT  probable   lower  European
  M1.1    1827UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.5    2037UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 201/153

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            200/152

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2221 2233
      Darwin               6   2221 2223
      Learmonth            7   2222 2222
      Canberra             5   1221 2223
      Hobart               6   1231 21--
      Casey(Ant)          13   3--- 3233
      Davis(Ant)          18   34-- 3243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2032 3223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Feb    20    active 
24 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 20 February 
and is current for interval 23-24 February. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 Feb   159

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
23 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 19 February 
and is current for interval 20-22 February (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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