[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.7    0251UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M5.6    0612UT  confirmed  lower  Mid East/Indian
  M4.8    0959UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1626UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.9    1711UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.6    2107UT  confirmed  lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M4.7    0251UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 193/145

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            205/156            205/156
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2122 2223
      Darwin               5   2121 2223
      Learmonth            5   2112 2223
      Canberra             5   2121 2223
      Hobart               7   1122 23--
      Casey(Ant)           9   3--2 3213
      Davis(Ant)          13   33-3 3313
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2111 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb     7    Quiet 
22 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Feb    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 20 February 
and is current for interval 23-24 February. Moderately disturbed 
conditions expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm 
periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
20 Feb   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
22 Feb   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
23 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 19 February 
and is current for interval 20-22 February (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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