[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/2N    0010UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 192/144

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            185/138

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3321 2123
      Darwin               5   2221 2124
      Learmonth            6   2311 2123
      Canberra             5   2221 1123
      Hobart               6   2321 1123
      Casey(Ant)          12   4--- 21--
      Davis(Ant)          17   4433 32-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1121 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb    18    active 
24 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 20 February 
and is current for interval 23-24 February. Moderately disturbed 
conditions expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm 
periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
22 Feb   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 50% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Feb   115    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
25 Feb   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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