[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 246/196

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            245/195            245/195



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3433 3323
      Darwin              11   3322 3323
      Learmonth           11   3322 3313
      Canberra            11   2332 3322
      Hobart              14   3432 3321
      Casey(Ant)          19   45-3 3223
      Davis(Ant)          25   44-4 5323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2100 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Feb     6    Quiet 
04 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Slightly increased geomagnetic activity levels were 
observed for 1 Feb as the result of a CME associated with a recent 
disappearing solar filament. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
01 Feb   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded MUF's were observed at times during 
1 Feb as the result of a slight increase in geomagnetic activity, 
however, MUF's were predominantly near normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    24300 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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